This blog started as my movie marathon — watching a movie a day for a whole year — and has continued as a place for me to write reviews about movies, TV, and various other items.
This is still a work in progress as I migrate from my old platform at Tumblr. For now, you can still access the whole backlog of posts there at http://reelmatt.tumblr.com
This is my fifth year doing Oscar predictions since I started this site, and every subsequent year seems to get harder and harder. Partially because of the nominees but also because I’ve been procrastinating more and more as the years go by. Earlier today I posted two final reviews of Best Picture nominees and am writing this preface to my predictions on a train back from Salem. There’s also several major nominees I didn’t get around to watching including Fences (Best Picture and Denzel Washington for Best Actor) and Lion (Picture and Adapted Screenplay).
But I also write this during a bit of a resurgence for me. After barely watching or reviewing films last year, I tried my best to get back in the habit and have been partially successful (I’m satisfied with the frequency I’ve achieved after it being near zero). Hopefully I can continue this practice the rest of the year so I can share my thoughts with the (admittedly few) who care enough to read my thoughts. And for those who don’t, I did start logging my films on Letterboxd so you can follow my goings on there, if that’s more amenable to you.
I usually take this time to give a recap of how I’ve done in previous years, but I’m running up against my publishing deadline, so I’m simply just going to include links for now to my 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 predictions where you can see for yourself. I’m hoping this year can be more like 2014 where I got 92% correct. This year seems a bit more straightforward with some contentious races, but the others not so much (read: expect a La La Land near clean sweep, ugh). Last disclosure, whereas most years I spend weeks researching what the critics and prognosticators think about who will win the trophies, this year that time is only a few hours (because again, I really procrastinated this year). But see below for my personal pick for Most Deserving and who I think is Most Likely.
| Film |
|---|
| Arrival |
| Fences |
| Hacksaw Ridge |
| Hell or High Water |
| Hidden Figures |
| La La Land |
| Lion |
| Manchester by the Sea |
| Moonlight |
Most Deserving: Arrival
Most Likely: La La Land
Why: I’ll take this as my space to say just how much I dislike La La Land. The film was enjoyable enough, getting three stars out of five from me and it is certainly deserving of a few nominations at the least. At 14 nominations in 13 categories (it has two for Best Original Song) it is expected to get close to, or even nail a full clean sweep. Much like when Silver Linings Playbook took the Oscars by force in 2013, I was vehemently against it winning any because I thought it’s praise was vastly overblown. So in a sense, my adverse reaction to La La Land winning any awards tonight is not entirely rational, yet nonetheless is how I feel.
Arrival on the other hand was one of my favorite films of the year, if not my absolute favorite. Because of this, Arrival got the most picks for me in my Most Deserving category, aka my personal favorite. While I will gladly take any and all wins by Arrival, I’m going with general consensus for most awards that La La Land will get lots and lots.
| Director | Film |
|---|---|
| Denis Villeneuve | Arrival |
| Mel Gibson | Hacksaw Ridge |
| Damien Chazelle | La La Land |
| Kenneth Lonergan | Manchester by the Sea |
| Barry Jenkins | Moonlight |
Most Deserving: Barry Jenkins
Most Likely: Damien Chazelle
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Casey Affleck | Manchester by the Sea |
| Andrew Garfield | Hacksaw Ridge |
| Ryan Gosling | La La Land |
| Viggo Mortensen | Captain Fantastic |
| Denzel Washington | Fences |
Most Deserving: Andrew Garfield
Most Likely: Denzel Washington
Why: I’m really upset I didn’t get a chance to see Fences before the Oscars this year, mainly because it should be a lock for both of it’s acting nominations. Not having seen it, my most deserving choice has to be Andrew Garfield instead. Casey Affleck is the obvious other contender in this race and it should be a tossup between him and Denzel. While I was a fan of Affleck’s performance and of Manchester by the Sea as a whole, I don’t think it was a performance that locked in a win, so I’m deferring to a few others’ opinion on Washington’s performance.
| Actress | Film |
|---|---|
| Isabelle Huppert | Elle |
| Ruth Negga | Loving |
| Natalie Portman | Jackie |
| Emma Stone | La La Land |
| Meryl Streep | Florence Foster Jenkins |
Most Deserving: Emma Stone
Most Likely: Emma Stone
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Mahershala Ali | Moonlight |
| Jeff Bridges | Hell or High Water |
| Lucas Hedges | Manchester by the Sea |
| Dev Patel | Lion |
| Michael Shannon | Nocturnal Animals |
Most Deserving: Jeff Bridges
Most Likely: Mahershala Ali
Why: Moonlight was an excellent film overall, including many wonderful performances. Mahershala Ali is one of the obvious standouts in the film, but he only appears for what seems like a small part of the film, and I don’t think his performance is good enough for the time he appears to get the award. He does seem to be the frontrunner, so he’s my pick for Most Likely. Jeff Bridges is my personal choice mainly because I want to give Hell or High Water some love and the only other nominee I saw was Lucas Hedges who was merely alright.
| Actress | Film |
|---|---|
| Viola Davis | Fences |
| Naomie Harris | Moonlight |
| Nicole Kidman | Lion |
| Octavia Spencer | Hidden Figures |
| Michelle Williams | Manchester by the Sea |
Most Deserving: Octavia Spencer
Most Likely: Viola Davis
Why: Again, I’m sad I didn’t get to see Fences and many seem to agree Davis is a lock for this award. Michelle Williams is the consensus for the runner-up, which I disagree with, again for similar reasons to Mahershala Ali in Moonlight — she only appears in a small portion of the film. Therefore, my personal choice is Octavia Spencer.
| Film | Writer(s) |
|---|---|
| 20th Century Women | Mike Mills |
| Hell or High Water | Taylor Sheridan |
| La La Land | Damien Chazelle |
| The Lobster | Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou |
| Manchester by the Sea | Kenneth Lonergan |
Most Deserving: The Lobster
Most Likely: Manchester by the Sea
| Film | Writer(s) |
|---|---|
| Arrival | Eric Heisserer |
| Fences | August Wilson |
| Hidden Figures | Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi |
| Lion | Luke Davies |
| Moonlight | Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney |
Most Deserving: Arrival
Most Likely: Moonlight
| Film |
|---|
| Kubo and the Two Strings |
| Moana |
| My Life as a Zucchini |
| The Red Turtle |
| Zootopia |
Most Deserving: Moana
Most Likely: Zootopia
| Film | Country |
|---|---|
| Land of Mine | Denmark |
| A Man Called Ove | Sweden |
| The Salesman | Iran |
| Tanna | Australia |
| Toni Erdmann | Germany |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: The Salesman
| Film |
|---|
| Fire at Sea |
| I Am Not Your Negro |
| Life, Animated |
| O.J.: Made in America |
| 13th |
Most Deserving: O.J.: Made in America
Most Likely: O.J.: Made in America
Why: I just finished watching the O.J. documentary (it’s quite a doozy and packs a wallop of a runtime) and it’s the only one I’ve seen this year. It was a great accompaniment to FX’s dramatized version The People vs. O.J. Simpson (also great). In short: I’ve got a review on both coming, and count on it taking home some gold.
| Film |
|---|
| “Extremis” |
| “4.1 Miles” |
| “Joe’s Violin” |
| “Watani: My Homeland” |
| “The White Helmets” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “The White Helmets”
| Film |
|---|
| Allied |
| Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them |
| Florence Foster Jenkins |
| Jackie |
| La La Land |
Most Deserving: Jackie
Most Likely: La La Land
| Song | Film | Artist |
|---|---|---|
| “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” | La La Land | Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul |
| “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” | Trolls | Music and Lyrics by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin, and Karl Johan Schuster |
| “City of Stars” | La La Land | Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyrics by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul |
| “The Empty Chair” | Jim: The James Foley Story | Music and Lyrics by J. Ralph and Sting |
| “How Far I’ll Go” | Moana | Music and Lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda |
Most Deserving: “How Far I’ll Go”
Most Likely: “City of Stars”
| Film | Composer |
|---|---|
| Jackie | Mica Levi |
| La La Land | Justin Hurwitz |
| Lion | Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka |
| Moonlight | Nicholas Britell |
| Passengers | Thomas Newman |
Most Deserving: La La Land
Most Likely: La La Land
| Film |
|---|
| A Man Called Ove |
| Star Trek Beyond |
| Suicide Squad |
Most Deserving: Star Trek Beyond
Most Likely: Star Trek Beyond
| Film |
|---|
| Arrival |
| Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them |
| Hail, Caesar! |
| La La Land |
| Passengers |
Most Deserving: Arrival
Most Likely: La La Land
| Film |
|---|
| Arrival |
| Hacksaw Ridge |
| Hell or High Water |
| La La Land |
| Moonlight |
Most Deserving: Arrival
Most Likely: La La Land
Why: Just see above in my Best Picture explanation. Hacksaw Ridge would probably take last place here for me with La La Land coming in at fourth place. Any of the remaining three in my opinion are more deserving of the win in this category and will be genuinely excited if that happens — ideally with an Arrival win. But alas, La La Land will probably take this on it’s way to a near or full clean sweep.
| Film |
|---|
| Arrival |
| La La Land |
| Lion |
| Moonlight |
| Silence |
Most Deserving: Arrival
Most Likely: La La Land
| Film |
|---|
| Arrival |
| Deepwater Horizon |
| Hacksaw Ridge |
| La La Land |
| Sully |
Most Deserving: Arrival
Most Likely: Hacksaw Ridge
| Film |
|---|
| Arrival |
| Hacksaw Ridge |
| La La Land |
| Rogue One: A Star Wars Story |
| 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi |
Most Deserving: Arrival
Most Likely: Hacksaw Ridge
| Film |
|---|
| Deepwater Horizon |
| Doctor Strange |
| The Jungle Book |
| Kubo and the Two Strings |
| Rogue One: A Star Wars Story |
Most Deserving: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Most Likely: The Jungle Book
| Film |
|---|
| “Blind Vaysha” |
| “Borrowed Time” |
| “Pear Cider and Cigarettes” |
| “Pearl” |
| “Piper” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “Piper”
| Film |
|---|
| “Ennemis intérieurs” |
| “La Femme et le TGV” |
| “Silent Nights” |
| “Sing” |
| “Timecode” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “La Femme et le TGV”