This blog started as my movie marathon — watching a movie a day for a whole year — and has continued as a place for me to write reviews about movies, TV, and various other items.
This is still a work in progress as I migrate from my old platform at Tumblr. For now, you can still access the whole backlog of posts there at http://reelmatt.tumblr.com
Apparently, we all dream in gold, and a bunch of films will be taking away the gold during this year’s 88th Academy Awards. While the amount of films I’ve seen since the first year of my movie marathon has declined, the Oscars always seem to get me back in the swing of things, watching and reviewing movies ahead of the biggest day of the year for the film industry.
Last year was my lowest in terms of predictions with 16 out of 24 (67%) correct. Comparatively, I got 71% correct in 2013 and a whopping 92% correct in 2014. This year’s crop of nominees doesn’t have any one standout film which should prove difficult in terms of predictions, but it’ll still be fun to play along anyways. From my own perspective, while I did enjoy many of the films this past year — and am glad to have seen many of the nominees — there’s no Argo or Boyhood this year that I’ve been rooting for to win since the moment I saw it (and yes, I know Boyhood lost to Birdman).
There’s also the #OscarsSoWhite controversy surrounding this year’s ceremony as for the second year in a row, all 20 of the acting nominations are for white actors. Lots of articles have been written, people have chimed in on both sides, some people are boycotting the awards, and the Academy has even taken steps to change the makeup of it’s voting membership. Wikipedia has a great summary and links to numerous articles about the topic and I encourage you to follow some and read up if interested.
Check after the jump for my predictions on the films “Most Likely” to win as well as my personal picks for who I think is “Most Deserving” to win.
| Film |
|---|
| The Big Short |
| Bridge of Spies |
| Brooklyn |
| Mad Max: Fury Road |
| The Martian |
| The Revenant |
| Room |
| Spotlight |
Most Deserving: Spotlight
Most Likely: The Revenant
Why: Wow, what a race this year has been. Lots of contenders have come and gone (ahem, Steve Jobs), and even with the remaining eight nominees, there are two clear frontrunners — The Revenant and The Big Short — with Spotlight bringing up the rear as a potential third candidate. It does seem as though every year has gotten progressively more competitive¹ with this year being no different. Things seem really up in the air this year and perhaps may come down to the preferential ballot: which film is most agreeable, not necessarily the “best” film.
Even for my personal pick it was a hard decision. Of the eight films, I gave three 5-stars and four 4-stars (and then of course Bridge of Spies, which I despised, I gave 2-stars). While I thoroughly enjoyed The Big Short and would get the underdog vote here, my heart has to go with Spotlight. It does handle dark subject matter and therefore isn’t necessarily the easiest film to watch, but it is incredibly powerful and is one of the best investigative films I’ve seen in a while.
However, I do think The Revenant will win not only the Best Director trophy for Iñárritu, but also carry that momentum into a Best Picture win as well. It is a great film with certain Best Picture qualities to it, but like last year’s ceremony where Birdman won over my personal favorite Boyhood, I don’t think it’s the best Best Picture. Whatever happens though, it is sure to be an interesting competition throughout the night, not only for Best Picture but for many of the other awards as well.
| Director | Film |
|---|---|
| Lenny Abrahamson | Room |
| Alejandro G. Iñárritu | The Revenant |
| Tom McCarthy | Spotlight |
| Adam McKay | The Big Short |
| George Miller | Mad Max: Fury Road |
Most Deserving: George Miller
Most Likely: Alejandro G. Iñárritu
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Bryan Cranston | Trumbo |
| Matt Damon | The Martian |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | The Revenant |
| Michael Fassbender | Steve Jobs |
| Eddie Redmayne | The Danish Girl |
Most Deserving: Matt Damon
Most Likely: Leonardo DiCaprio
Why: After losing his previous four Academy Award nominations which were met with shock and outrage, it looks like DiCaprio will finally take home the gold for his performance as Hugh Glass in The Revenant. Of all his nominated performances however, I think DiCaprio’s work in The Revenant is the least worthy of a win. The Wolf of Wall Street and Django Unchained (for which he wasn’t even nominated) were better showcases of what DiCaprio is capable of. That’s not to say he shouldn’t win, and lets be fair, this year’s crop of nominees is quite lackluster overall, but my personal choice would be for Matt Damon. He truly brings the character of Mark Watney alive in The Martian with his funny yet isolated performance. But sure, give DiCaprio the Oscar for having been snubbed for so long.
| Actress | Film |
|---|---|
| Cate Blanchett | Carol |
| Brie Larson | Room |
| Jennifer Lawrence | Joy |
| Charlotte Rampling | 45 Years |
| Saoirse Ronan | Brooklyn |
Most Deserving: Saoirse Ronan
Most Likely: Brie Larson
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Christian Bale | The Big Short |
| Tom Hardy | The Revenant |
| Mark Ruffalo | Spotlight |
| Mark Rylance | Bridge of Spies |
| Sylvester Stallone | Creed |
Most Deserving: Tom Hardy
Most Likely: Sylvester Stallone
Why: Let me start by saying that I haven’t seen Creed yet and Stallone’s performance might truly be worthy of a win. But I find it hard to believe it is even remotely as fantastic as the performances given by either Tom Hardy in The Revenant or Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies. Both were beyond phenomenal and in the case of Rylance and Bridge of Spies, he was the shining star of an otherwise dull movie for me. Hardy’s performance however is the one that should be awarded as he eclipses DiCaprio’s apparently award-worthy performance in The Revenant. If DiCaprio is going to win for Best Actor, Hardy should win for Best Supporting Actor. The category is a bit of a toss up though and while Stallone is the apparent front-runner, Rylance who recently won the BAFTA in this category could sneak in with an upset. Part of the reason Best Supporting Actor is so open this year: Idris Elba, winner of the SAG Award (and the best predictor of the Academy Award) wasn’t even nominated. I really hope I’m wrong with this prediction, but all signs are pointing to Stallone.
| Actress | Film |
|---|---|
| Jennifer Jason Leigh | The Hateful Eight |
| Rooney Mara | Carol |
| Rachel McAdams | Spotlight |
| Alicia Vikander | The Danish Girl |
| Kate Winslet | Steve Jobs |
Most Deserving: Alicia Vikander
Most Likely: Alicia Vikander
Why: This is yet another close race with a dead-heat between Alicia Vikander and Kate Winslet. Vikander has won most of the typical predictive awards including the SAG and Critic’s Choice Awards, Winslet is seemingly neck-and-neck. Even though I haven’t seen The Danish Girl and have seen Steve Jobs, my choice is still for Vikander because of her fantastic performance in Ex Machina. Everyone seemed to agree that performance was great (and has been nominated in that role for a few other awards), but her turn in The Danish Girl is even more impressive. Winslet does deliver a great performance and I could also see her winning too, but I’m sticking with Vikander.
| Film |
|---|
| Anomalisa |
| Boy & The World |
| Inside Out |
| Shaun the Sheep Movie |
| When Marnie Was There |
Most Deserving: Inside Out
Most Likely: Inside Out
| Film | Country |
|---|---|
| A War | Denmark |
| Embrace of the Serpent | Colombia |
| Mustang | France |
| Son of Saul | Hungary |
| Theeb | Jordan |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: Son of Saul
| Film | Writers(s) |
|---|---|
| Bridge of Spies | Matt Charman, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen |
| Ex Machina | Alex Garland |
| Inside Out | Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, and Ronnie del Carmen |
| Spotlight | Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy |
| Straight Outta Compton | Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savage, and Alan Wenkus |
Most Deserving: Ex Machina
Most Likely: Spotlight
| Film | Writer(s) |
|---|---|
| The Big Short | Charles Randolph and Adam McKay |
| Brooklyn | Nick Hornby |
| Carol | Phyllis Nagy |
| The Martian | Drew Goddard |
| Room | Emma Donoghue |
Most Deserving: The Big Short
Most Likely: The Big Short
| Film |
|---|
| Carol |
| Cinderella |
| The Danish Girl |
| Mad Max: Fury Road |
| The Revenant |
Most Deserving: Mad Max: Fury Road
Most Likely: Mad Max: Fury Road
| Song | Film |
|---|---|
| “Earned It” | Fifty Shades of Grey |
| “Manta Ray” | Racing Extinction |
| “Simple Song #3” | Youth |
| “Til It Happens to You” | The Hunting Ground |
| “Writing’s on the Wall” | Spectre |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “Till It Happens to You”
| Film |
|---|
| Bridge of Spies |
| Carol |
| Sicario |
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
| The Hateful Eight |
Most Deserving: Sicario
Most Likely: The Hateful Eight
Why: I haven’t seen or heard The Hateful Eight yet, so I probably don’t know what I’m missing in terms of Morricone’s score. I have seen the other nominees though and Jóhann Jóhannsson’s work on Sicario was outstanding. It was eerie, unsettling, and really helped build the world and tell the story while also not calling too much attention to itself. John William’s return to Star Wars earns him his 50th nomination and while there is much to love about his new themes, Williams has certainly done better. Like DiCaprio and Stallone however, it looks like Morricone is going to win as a lifetime achievement nod (though many do say this one is truly deserved — unlike Stallone).
| Film |
|---|
| Amy |
| Cartel Land |
| The Look of Silence |
| What Happened, Miss Simone? |
| Winter on Fire |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: Amy
| Film |
|---|
| “Body Team 12” |
| “Chau, Beyond the Lines” |
| “Claude Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah” |
| “A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness” |
| “Last Day of Freedom” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “Claud Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah”
| Film |
|---|
| Mad Max: Fury Road |
| The Hundred-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared |
| The Revenant |
Most Deserving: The Revenant
Most Likely: Mad Max: Fury Road
| Film |
|---|
| Bridge of Spies |
| The Danish Girl |
| Mad Max: Fury Road |
| The Martian |
| The Revenant |
Most Deserving: Mad Max: Fury Road
Most Likely: Mad Max: Fury Road
| Film |
|---|
| The Big Short |
| Mad Max: Fury Road |
| The Revenant |
| Spotlight |
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
Most Deserving: The Big Short
Most Likely: Mad Max: Fury Road
Why: Both The Big Short and Mad Max: Fury Road are well edited films and having both won Eddie Awards — for Comedy/Musical and Drama, respectively — it’s a close call for who will win the Oscar. Most prognosticators are leaning towards Mad Max and I agree with that too. For such a weird film, with a premise that’s pretty much “trucks driving in a desert”, the editing does such a great job at constantly keeping things in motion. Like the characters, you don’t have long to stop and reflect on what’s happening because you need to keep driving. I would be happy with a Mad Max win, and I ended up choosing this for the “Most Likely” because I’m going all-in with Mad Max: Fury Road on the technical awards.
This being said, the editing plays an even more vital role in The Big Short jumping between fast and slow scenes that are information filled or explanatory. Without walking this fine line as skillfully as Hank Corwin (the editor) does, The Big Short would completely fail as a film and as a story. Part of the flow is built into the script, yes, but the film editing does the right job of telling you what’s important when, and how much time to devote to a certain topic. So while I’m a fan of the post-apocalyptic, just drive and keep moving atmosphere in Mad Max, that movie succeeds more due to it’s other components (costumes, makeup, production design) than The Big Short, which relies heavily on the film editing.
| Film |
|---|
| Carol |
| The Hateful Eight |
| Mad Max: Fury Road |
| The Revenant |
| Sicario |
Most Deserving: The Revenant
Most Likely: The Revenant
| Film |
|---|
| Mad Max: Fury Road |
| The Martian |
| The Revenant |
| Sicario |
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
Most Deserving: Mad Max: Fury Road
Most Likely: Mad Max: Fury Road
| Film |
|---|
| Bridge of Spies |
| Mad Max: Fury Road |
| The Martian |
| The Revenant |
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
Most Deserving: Mad Max: Fury Road
Most Likely: Mad Max: Fury Road
| Film |
|---|
| Ex Machina |
| Mad Max: Fury Road |
| The Martian |
| The Revenant |
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens |
Most Deserving: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Most Likely: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
| Film |
|---|
| “Bear Story” |
| “Prologue” |
| “Sanjay’s Super Team” |
| “We Can’t Live without Cosmos” |
| “World of Tomorrow” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “World of Tomorrow”
| Film |
|---|
| “Ave Maria” |
| “Day One” |
| “Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)“ |
| “Shok” |
| “Stutterer” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “Shok”
¹Like a teacher telling her class how this year’s students have been the best ever — meaning the “best” kids from a few years ago must now be horrible. No, every year can’t actually be better than the last.