This blog started as my movie marathon — watching a movie a day for a whole year — and has continued as a place for me to write reviews about movies, TV, and various other items.
This is still a work in progress as I migrate from my old platform at Tumblr. For now, you can still access the whole backlog of posts there at http://reelmatt.tumblr.com
It’s that time of year again: awards season! That’s right, over the last month we’ve seen film recognized at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, and all the guild awards ranging from the DGA to the WGA. Today, Sunday, February 22 is the culmination of the 2015 awards season with the 87th annual Academy Awards. Once again, as I did for 2013 and 2014, I will be making my predictions as to which nominee is “Most Likely” to win and which I think is the “Most Deserved”.
When I started predicting the Oscars in 2013, I got 17 out of 24 (71%) correct. Last year I did much better getting 22 out of 24 (92%) correct with the only two wrong predictions being those for both Best Short Film awards (Live Action and Animated). Hopefully I can match that success rate this year as my school, Emerson College (of which I’m participating in the Los Angeles program this semester — just over a mile away from the Dolby Theater where the awards are held), is holding a competition with prizes for the people with the most correct guesses.
Check after the jump for who I think will win it what looks to be an extremely close race this year. Birdman and Boyhood are running neck-and-neck for the top prize and The Grand Budapest Hotel seems poised to take home its fair share of technical, and more prestigious, awards.
| Film |
|---|
| American Sniper |
| Birdman |
| Boyhood |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
| The Imitation Game |
| Selma |
| The Theory of Everything |
| Whiplash |
Most Deserving: Boyhood
Most Likely: Birdman
Why: By far my favorite film this year was Boyhood. I couldn’t stop talking about it and saw it in theaters three times because I enjoyed it so much. The film, as you have no doubt heard by now, was filmed over twelve years and tracks the growth of a family over that time. Of all the coming of age stories that have ever been told, Boyhood trumps them all. To see an entire life be condensed down into two and a half hours while still feeling like a complete story is nothing short of amazing. Of the other nominees, I awarded five stars to The Imitation Game, Selma, and Whiplash with the latter probably being my second favorite out of the bunch.
All Oscar prognosticators have deemed this year’s Best Picture race to be among the most competitive and closest in years. Boyhood and Birdman are in a dead heat with the former having won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA but Birdman has swept almost every other race including the PGA, DGA, and SAG awards. It used to be the case that Best Picture and Best Director were linked and one award would be a good predictor of the other. But most believe that this will be the third year in a row with a split decision between Picture and Director. While my heart is for Boyhood, I’m inclined to agree with the general consensus that Birdman will win Best Picture while Richard Linklater will take the trophy for Best Director.
| Director | Film |
|---|---|
| Alejandro G. Iñárritu | Birdman |
| Richard Linklater | Boyhood |
| Bennett Miller | Foxcatcher |
| Wes Anderson | The Grand Budapest Hotel |
| Morten Tyldum | The Imitation Game |
Most Deserving: Richard Linklater
Most Likely: Richard Linklater
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Steve Carell | Foxcatcher |
| Bradley Cooper | American Sniper |
| Benedict Cumberbatch | The Imitation Game |
| Michael Keaton | Birdman |
| Eddie Redmayne | The Theory of Everything |
Most Deserving: Eddie Redmayne
Most Likely: Eddie Redmayne
Why: I’ve been calling for Eddie Redmayne to win this award ever since I saw The Theory of Everything in October and I haven’t wavered on that assertion since. His transformation into Stephen Hawking is nothing short of a monumental achievement and deserves to be recognized. Michael Keaton and Steve Carell both gave wonderful performances and Bradley Cooper was one of the only shining lights I found in American Sniper, though my general dislike for that film has me rooting against Cooper. Still, given the momentum Redmayne has in this category, it’s his to lose.
| Actress | Film |
|---|---|
| Marion Cotillard | Two Days, One Night |
| Felicity Jones | The Theory of Everything |
| Julianne Moore | Still Alice |
| Rosamund Pike | Gone Girl |
| Reese Witherspoon | Wild |
Most Deserving: Julianne Moore
Most Likely: Julianne Moore
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Robert Duvall | The Judge |
| Ethan Hawke | Boyhood |
| Edward Norton | Birdman |
| Mark Ruffalo | Foxcatcher |
| J.K. Simmons | Whiplash |
Most Deserving: J.K. Simmons
Most Likely: J.K. Simmons
| Actress | Film |
|---|---|
| Patricia Arquette | Boyhood |
| Laura Dern | Wild |
| Keira Knightley | The Imitation Game |
| Emma Stone | Birdman |
| Meryl Streep | Into the Woods |
Most Deserving: Patricia Arquette
Most Likely: Patricia Arquette
| Film |
|---|
| Big Hero 6 |
| The Boxtrolls |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 |
| Song of the Sea |
| The Tale of Princess Kaguya |
Most Deserving: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Most Likely: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Why: If the voting were up to me (and I’m sure many of the outraged fans who caused an uproar after the nominations were announced), The LEGO Movie would be taking home the Best Animated Feature award this year. Alas, the Academy failed to nominate the film and now the two front runners are Big Hero 6 and How to Train Your Dragon 2. While Big Hero 6 was a decent film, I wouldn’t consider it Oscar-worthy. And besides, How to Train Your Dragon 2 was an outstanding film that blew me away when I saw it way back in June. By all accounts, I thought the sequel was much better than the original How to Train Your Dragon which also won the Best Animated Feature Oscar back in 2006, so in a way it does seem fitting that How to Train Your Dragon 2 will likely be taking home some another gold statue this year.
| Film | Country |
|---|---|
| Ida | Poland |
| Leviathan | Russia |
| Tangerines | Estonia |
| Timbuktu | Mauritania |
| Wild Tales | Argentina |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: Ida
| Film | Writers(s) |
|---|---|
| Birdman | Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo |
| Boyhood | Richard Linklater |
| Foxcatcher | E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel | Wes Anderson; story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness |
| Nightcrawler | Dan Gilory |
Most Deserving: Boyhood
Most Likely: The Grand Budapest Hotel
| Film | Writers(s) |
|---|---|
| American Sniper | Jason Hall |
| The Imitation Game | Graham Moore |
| Inherent Vice | Paul Thomas Anderson |
| The Theory of Everything | Anthony McCarten |
| Whiplash | Damien Chazelle |
Most Deserving: The Imitation Game
Most Likely: The Imitation Game
| Film |
|---|
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
| Inherent Vice |
| Into the Woods |
| Maleficent |
| Mr. Turner |
Most Deserving: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Most Likely: The Grand Budapest Hotel
| Song | Film |
|---|---|
| “Everything is Awesome” | The LEGO Movie |
| “Glory” | Selma |
| “Grateful” | Beyond the Lights |
| “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” | Glen Campbell… I’ll Be Me |
| “Lost Stars” | Begin Again |
Most Deserving: “Everything is Awesome”
Most Likely: “Glory”
| Film |
|---|
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
| The Imitation Game |
| Interstellar |
| Mr. Turner |
| The Theory of Everything |
Most Deserving: Interstellar
Most Likely: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Why: While my passion for Boyhood to win Best Picture cannot be matched, my love for the Interstellar soundtrack comes in a close second. I am a huge fan of what Hans Zimmer did with the score and it plays such a huge and important role in the entire Interstellar soundscape and overall momentum of the film. Part of the reason Zimmer’s work will probably be overlooked is most people’s frustration with the overall sound of Interstellar complaining it was too loud and you couldn’t understand the dialogue at times. I fell on the opposite side of that camp, arguing in favor of Christopher Nolan’s decision to treat dialogue as just another sound effect that was able to be overshadowed by more “important” elements in particular scenes.
But I digress. For Best Original Score, the race again seems like a mixed bag. The Theory of Everything won the Golden Globe while The Grand Budapest Hotel won the BAFTA. A possible upset by The Imitation Game doesn’t seem too out of the question either. As much as I want Interstellar to pull off a miracle, I’m choosing The Grand Budapest Hotel as the most likely.
| Film |
|---|
| CitizenFour |
| Finding Vivian Maier |
| Last Days in Vietnam |
| The Salt of the Earth |
| Virunga |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: CitizenFour
| Film |
|---|
| “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” |
| “Joanna” |
| “Our Curse” |
| “The Reaper (La Parka)“ |
| “White Earth” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
| Film |
|---|
| Foxcatcher |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
| Guardians of the Galaxy |
Most Deserving: Foxcatcher
Most Likely: Foxcatcher
| Film |
|---|
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
| The Imitation Game |
| Interstellar |
| Into the Woods |
| Mr. Turner |
Most Deserving: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Most Likely: The Grand Budapest Hotel
| Film |
|---|
| American Sniper |
| Boyhood |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
| The Imitation Game |
| Whiplash |
Most Deserving: Boyhood
Most Likely: Boyhood
Why: I wasn’t a big fan of American Sniper or The Grand Budapest Hotel and while The Imitation Game was a great film, the editing didn’t standout as particularly impressive. Boyhood and Whiplash however, were both made in part due to impressive editing of different kinds. Boyhood, my personal favorite, had to condense twelve years of filming and storytelling into under three hours while telling a cohesive story. Sandra Adair really excelled with not only turning all that footage into a cohesive story, but doing so in a way that transitioned from year-to-year much better than any other “conventional” film deals with scene or time transitions. Adair helped make Boyhood one continuous film that you could watch and see a family grow over a period of time rather than a chapter book that’s segmented and choppy, taking you out of the film’s trademark conceit every ten minutes.
Whiplash was impressive for different reasons altogether. Tom Cross gave this film an energy and tension that I never thought would be possible with music. How often do you see a film about musicians playing instruments for a jazz band and think, “Ooh, this will be a lot of fun.” Unless your a jazz aficionado, chances are quite slim. But Cross turned it into an exhilarating thrill ride that made you nervous for Andrew Neiman and the other students under the evil tyrant Terence Fletcher. And it wasn’t just the quick cuts and fast pace that made Whiplash a success, it was the smaller character moments and seeing both Andrew and Terence’s progression over the course of the film as they slowly developed into who we see at the end. A great piece of work, but I’ve got to award this to Sandra Adair for Boyhood.
| Film |
|---|
| Birdman |
| The Grand Budapest Hotel |
| Ida |
| Mr. Turner |
| Unbroken |
Most Deserving: Birdman
Most Likely: Birdman
| Film |
|---|
| American Sniper |
| Birdman |
| The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies |
| Interstellar |
| Unbroken |
Most Deserving: Interstellar
Most Likely: American Sniper
| Film |
|---|
| American Sniper |
| Birdman |
| Interstellar |
| Unbroken |
| Whiplash |
Most Deserving: Interstellar
Most Likely: American Sniper
| Film |
|---|
| Captain America: The Winter Soldier |
| Dawn of the Planet of the Apes |
| Guardians of the Galaxy |
| Interstellar |
| X-Men: Days of Future Past |
Most Deserving: Interstellar
Most Likely: Interstellar
| Film |
|---|
| “The Bigger Picture” |
| “The Dam Keeper” |
| “Feast” |
| “Me and My Moulton” |
| “A Single Life” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “The Dam Keeper”
| Film |
|---|
| “Aya” |
| “Boogaloo and Graham” |
| “Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak)“ |
| “Parvaneh” |
| “The Phone Call” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “Parvaneh”