This blog started as my movie marathon — watching a movie a day for a whole year — and has continued as a place for me to write reviews about movies, TV, and various other items.
This is still a work in progress as I migrate from my old platform at Tumblr. For now, you can still access the whole backlog of posts there at http://reelmatt.tumblr.com
In just a few hours, the 86th Academy Awards will begin and another year in film will come to a close. Much like I did last year, this year I will also be predicting who will win the big prizes and walk away with the golden statue. Unlike last year where I was able to see all nine nominees before the ceremony, this year I’ve only managed to see eight of the nine nominees for Best Picture (Nebraska was the only one I missed). My predictions are two-fold: Most Deserving and Most Likely. Most Deserving is my personal choice for what I thought was the best nominee in a category. For a category where I haven’t seen any nominees (like Best Foreign Film or Best Documentary Short) I’ll list it as N/A. Most Likely are the choices I would put down on an official ballot if I’m trying to see how I compare to the actual winners. The reason I differentiate between the two is I know the way the Academy votes and what other people think was the best film (or the best performance, etc.) doesn’t always align with what I think is best.
Last year I predicted 17 out of 24 correct (71%) in terms of “Most Likely” and actually did better with my personal “Most Deserved” predictions (18 out of 24, or 75%). I’m curious to see how my predictions for this year turn out, especially in a race for Best Picture that is even closer than the battle between Argo, Life of Pi, and Lincoln was last year.
| Film |
|---|
| 12 Years a Slave |
| American Hustle |
| Captain Phillips |
| Dallas Buyers Club |
| Gravity |
| Her |
| Nebraska |
| Philomena |
| The Wolf of Wall Street |
Most Deserving: Gravity
Most Likely: 12 Years a Slave
Why: One thing that everyone agrees on is that no one knows who is walking home with the Oscar for Best Picture tonight. The two clear frontrunners are Gravity and 12 Years a Slave with some upsets including American Hustle and Her. As I mentioned in my review for 12 Years a Slave, this is the “safe” choice for the Academy to choose. No science fiction film has ever won Best Picture in the at least the last thirty years and the last fantasy film to win was The Lord of the Ring: The Return of the King a decade ago in 2003. Historical and biographical films, like 12 Years a Slave, on the other hand have had great representation including wins for Argo and The King’s Speech in addition to nominations for many others like Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, The Help, and The Blind Side.
My personal favorite has always been Gravity since the moment the credits started to roll and I stepped foot out of the theater. It was a cinematic experience like none other and shows just how entertaining original material can be and why you should still see films in theaters instead of at home on your TV, or even worse, your phone screen. Many have complained about a horrible script with poor dialogue and plot holes including breaking several key laws of physics. That may be true, but at least for me, I never once thought about those issues until after I saw the film because I was so lost in the moment by what was happening, so engrossed and tense that I couldn’t even think about that; all I could pay attention to was what was happening on screen at that very moment.
Another one of my personal favorites, Her, was easily the best character film of the year. Where Gravity excelled because of it’s awe and amazement and it’s ability to draw you into a theater, Her invited you to take a step back and look inside yourself and what it means to love. Spike Jonze showed how some in Hollywood are still able to be original and how a futuristic setting can give us a more accurate look at what our society is like and what that means for us. Sadly, this probably won’t get any recognition from the Academy although I can only hope it scores a win for screenplay.
While no one knows for sure who is going to win and the back and forth continues to be between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, there seems to be a slight edge for 12 Years a Slave. Despite Gravity being the frontrunner for many of the earlier awards (like the Directors Guild Award and the Producers Guild Award —for which it tied with 12 Years a Slave — and the Academy Award for Best Director), 12 Years a Slave is poised to take home the Best Picture award. The reason being is that Academy voting and its preferential system may favor 12 Years a Slave. It is an incredible film, deserving of its Best Picture nomination and my pick for a handful of other Oscars tonight, but only time will tell whether it can nab the top prize, or whether Gravity or some other contender snaps it up.
| Director | Film |
|---|---|
| Alfonso Cuarón | Gravity |
| Steve McQueen | 12 Years a Slave |
| Alexander Payne | Nebraska |
| David O. Russell | American Hustle |
| Martin Scorsese | The Wolf of Wall Street |
Most Deserving: Alfonso Cuarón
Most Likely: Alfonso Cuarón
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Christian Bale | American Hustle |
| Bruce Dern | Nebraska |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | The Wolf of Wall Street |
| Chiwetel Ejiofor | 12 Years a Slave |
| Matthew McConaughey | Dallas Buyers Club |
Most Deserving: Matthew McConaughey
Most Likely: Matthew McConaughey
| Actress | Film |
|---|---|
| Amy Adams | American Hustle |
| Cate Blanchett | Blue Jasmine |
| Sandra Bullock | Gravity |
| Judi Dench | Philomena |
| Meryl Streep | August: Osage County |
Most Deserving: Judi Dench
Most Likely: Cate Blanchett
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Barkhad Abdi | Captain Phillips |
| Bradley Cooper | American Hustle |
| Michael Fassbender | 12 Years a Slave |
| Jonah Hill | The Wolf of Wall Street |
| Jared Leto | Dallas Buyers Club |
Most Deserving: Jared Leto
Most Likely: Jared Leto
| Actress | Film |
|---|---|
| Sally Hawkins | Blue Jasmine |
| Jennifer Lawrence | American Hustle |
| Lupita Nyong’o | 12 Years a Slave |
| Juila Roberts | August: Osage County |
| June Squibb | Nebraska |
Most Deserving: Lupita Nyong’o
Most Likely: Lupita Nyong’o
| Film |
|---|
| The Croods |
| Despicable Me 2 |
| Ernest & Celestine |
| Frozen |
| The Wind Rises |
Most Deserving: Frozen
Most Likely: Frozen
| Film | Country |
|---|---|
| The Broken Circle Breakdown | Belgium |
| The Great Beauty | Italy |
| The Hunt | Denmark |
| The Missing Picture | Cambodia |
| Omar | Palestine |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: The Great Beauty
| Film | Writer(s) |
|---|---|
| American Hustle | Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell |
| Blue Jasmine | Woody Allen |
| Dallas Buyers Club | Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack |
| Her | Spike Jonze |
| Nebraska | Bob Nelson |
Most Deserving: Her
Most Likely: Her
| Film | Writer(s) |
|---|---|
| 12 Years a Slave | John Ridley |
| Before Midnight | Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke |
| Captain Phillips | Billy Ray |
| Philomena | Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Terence Winter |
Most Deserving: 12 Years a Slave
Most Likely: 12 Years a Slave
| Film |
|---|
| 12 Years a Slave |
| American Hustle |
| The Grandmaster |
| The Great Gatsby |
| The Invisible Woman |
Most Deserving: 12 Years a Slave
Most Likely: The Great Gatsby
| Song | Film |
|---|---|
| “Alone, Yet Not Alone” | Alone Yet Not Alone |
| “Happy” | Despicable Me 2 |
| “Let It Go” | Frozen |
| “The Moon Song” | Her |
| “Ordinary Love” | Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom |
Most Deserving: “Let It Go”
Most Likely: “Let It Go”
| Film |
|---|
| The Book Thief |
| Gravity |
| Her |
| Philomena |
| Saving Mr. Banks |
Most Deserving: Gravity
Most Likely: Gravity
| Film |
|---|
| 20 Feet From Stardom |
| The Act of Killing |
| Cutie and the Boxer |
| Dirty Wars |
| The Square |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: 20 Feet From Stardom
| Film |
|---|
| “CaveDigger” |
| “Facing Fear” |
| “Karama Has No Walls” |
| “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life” |
| “Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
| Film |
|---|
| Dallas Buyers Club |
| Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa |
| The Lone Ranger |
Most Deserving: Dallas Buyers Club
Most Likely: Dallas Buyers Club
| Film |
|---|
| 12 Years a Slave |
| American Hustle |
| Gravity |
| The Great Gatsby |
| Her |
Most Deserving: Her
Most Likely: The Great Gatsby
| Film |
|---|
| 12 Years a Slave |
| American Hustle |
| Captain Phillips |
| Dallas Buyers Club |
| Gravity |
Most Deserving: 12 Years a Slave
Most Likely: Gravity
Why: Many signs point to Gravity winning the award for Best Film Editing. It’s one of the close contenders for Best Picture (which is typically a good indicator of Best Editing as well — sixteen of the last twenty Best Picture winners have also won Best Film Editing) and is also a shoe in for many of the technical awards as well (like cinematography and possibly sound). Despite my affection for Gravity, I wouldn’t say the editing was the best part about the film; the cinematography is a much more important player in the film. Looking at the other nominees, the two that stick out are Captain Phillips and 12 Years a Slave. Captain Phillips won the Eddie Award for dramatic editing and therefore has a good chance to upset at the Academy Awards (guild awards are usually a good indicator of who will win). While I did enjoy the editing in Captain Phillips and editor Chris Rouse does a good job at bringing out the tension and suspense in director Paul Greengrass’ documentary style of shooting (Rouse won the Academy Award in 2007 for his work on another Greengrass film, The Bourne Ultimatum), I had many problems with the editing on a larger scale; how the film worked as a whole. To me, Captain Phillips felt like three very distinct sections of pre-boarding, boarding, and post-boarding the ship. So that leaves 12 Years a Slave as my pick for Most Deserving. Here the editing played a much bigger role and was very well done. 12 Years a Slave also had many long takes, but unlike Gravity there was some variety so the editor Joe Walker’s choice of when he used them was more purposeful. As a whole, 12 Years a Slave also felt divided into separate sections (pre-kidnapping, first master, and second master) but these sections worked much better together and fed off of each other to build up to a powerful ending. All this being said, I decided on Gravity for Most Likely, but Captain Phillips does seem poised for an upset.
| Film |
|---|
| The Grandmaster |
| Gravity |
| Inside Llewyn Davis |
| Nebraska |
| Prisoners |
Most Deserving: Gravity
Most Likely: Gravity
| Film |
|---|
| All Is Lost |
| Captain Phillips |
| Gravity |
| The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug |
| Lone Survivor |
Most Deserving: Gravity
Most Likely: Gravity
Why: Sound is the biggest part about Gravity even with all of its wonderful visuals and stunning long takes. Without the sound done the way it was, Gravity probably would have been much worse and fallen into the trap of the countless other space films out there. Instead they decided to go with realism and muffle all the sound effects (as there is no sound in space; the muffled sounds exist in the film as vibrations through interacting with the objects like the ISS). Lone Survivor blew me away with sound as well and is another film that would be entirely different had the sound been any less. While this put up a fight for my Most Deserving slot, I decided to stick with Gravity just because of the sheer scale and importance sound played in the film. Any different and the film would have changed drastically, and for a film where sound is that important, it should win the award.
| Film |
|---|
| Captain Phillips |
| Gravity |
| The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug |
| Inside Llewyn Davis |
| Lone Survivor |
Most Deserving: Inside Llewyn Davis
Most Likely: Gravity
Why: The sound categories are some of the most varied awards at the Oscars because it always seems to be changing. A few years ago I read that editing and mixing usually go to the same film since the voters don’t understand the difference (and for the 82nd, 83rd, and 84th Academy Awards that was true). But then I learned the difference (editing is more about the post-production side, mixing is on-set during production) and there was the tie between Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty last year for Best Sound Editing which has me rethinking my thoughts on the same film winning Best Sound Editing and Mixing. While I did find a few sites pointing towards Captain Phillips and Lone Survivor as possible upsets here, most still point towards Gravity as winning the award. Again, sound plays a vital role in that film and without it, Gravity would be completely different. But knowing the the sound for Inside Llewyn Davis was all recorded on set (exactly like Les Misérables — which won Best Sound Mixing — was) has me choosing the Coen brothers film as my Most Deserving.
| Film |
|---|
| Gravity |
| The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug |
| Iron Man 3 |
| The Lone Ranger |
| Star Trek Into Darkness |
Most Deserving: Gravity
Most Likely: Gravity
| Film |
|---|
| “Feral” |
| “Get a Horse!” |
| “Mr. Hublot” |
| “Possessions” |
| “Room on the Broom” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “Get a Horse!”
| Film |
|---|
| “Aquel no era yo (That Wasn’t Me)” |
| “Avant que de tout perdre (Just Before Losing Everything” |
| “Helium” |
| “Pitääkö mun kaikki hoitaa? (Do I have to Take Care of Everything)” |
| “The Voorman Problem” |
Most Deserving: N/A Most Likely: “Avant que de tout perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)”