Reel Matt
This blog started as my movie marathon — watching a movie a day for a whole year — and has continued as a place for me to write reviews about movies, TV, and various other items.
This is still a work in progress as I migrate from my old platform at Tumblr. For now, you can still access the whole backlog of posts there at http://reelmatt.tumblr.com
90th Academy Awards - Predictions
This is now the sixth year I’m making predictions for the Academy Awards, and unlike years past I’m getting these out more than just a few hours before the ceremony starts! 2018 was an off year for me in terms of getting to the theater and see a lot of the nominees. My goal every year is to see all the Best Picture nominees, a feat I was able to accomplish three times (for the 85th, 87th, and 88th Academy Awards — and only one or two away the other years). Unfortunately, I only saw four of the nine nominees this year (I’m hoping to get to the theater this weekend to see one or two more, and will update this post if I do, but my predictions are locked).
Of all the years to not see most of the nominees, I chose a year when there were a lot of good films to choose from. As I’ll mention in a few of my explanations below about why I chose my “Most Deserving” and “Most Likely” picks, I’m really disappointed in myself for not having seen more. I’ve only heard outstanding things about Get Out, Coco, and Baby Driver (my semi-dark horse pick for Best Film Editing) among others. Lady Bird was less universally praised but still phenomenal and deserving of its nominations from what I’ve heard.
Every year around Oscar time I always get back into the swing of things, watching and reviewing a lot of movies. It is my way of prepping for the Oscars and always like a reset button for me. It wasn’t until I saw Three Billboards and The Post last weekend did I realize that woah, the Oscars are in a week! They really snuck up on me this year which is why I’m scrambling a bit. I make a promise every year to use this as an opportunity to really re-commit myself to this blog and these reviews, and hopefully I keep that commitment more than I have in years past. It’ll never get to the level I was in Year 1 where I met my goal of watching 365 films in 365 days, but hopefully it is more than the meager 15 films I reviewed in 2017.
BEST PICTURE
| Film |
|---|
| Call Me by Your Name |
| Darkest Hour |
| Dunkirk |
| Get Out |
| Lady Bird |
| Phantom Thread |
| The Post |
| The Shape of Water |
| Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri |
Most Deserving: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Most Likely: Get Out
Why: A lot of people are predicting The Shape of Water to go home with the big win. It is nominated down-ballot for a lot of the technical awards and is posed to bring many of them home. In many ways, The Shape of Water is the easy, straightforward, and probably smart pick for everyone filling out ballots at home — the probabilities are in this film’s favor. But I’m choosing to go with a bit of an underdog here for a few reasons. First, Best Picture is voted on using a preferential ballot as many people are quick to mention, and can be seen as the reason Moonlight and Spotlight pulled out semi-underdog wins the past two years. Second, as other, smarter, people have also noted, while winning Best Director was often a good predictor of the Best Picture winner, the last few years have split these awards, opening up greater possibilities.
So, while I unfortunately haven’t seen Get Out, it will be my risky choice for my Most Likely nominee this year. As I said in my review for The Shape of Water, it was a good film but wasn’t my cup of tea. I understand the hype about it, but, similar to my opinions about Silver Linings Playbook back in 2013, I’m kind of rooting for the anti-The Shape of Water angle as my form of mini-protest; nothing personal, I just think there’s other, better, choices — albeit, ones I haven’t seen because I missed a lot this year.
I’ll be very curious to see who ends up walking home with the trophy. Is it the expected favorite, or will the ballot voting rules wash up more of an underdog pick. Three Billboards would be a good second choice pick, and more conventional one than Get Out for the underdog vote, but I’m sticking with my gut and choosing the February 2017 release (!) of Get Out (and then hopefully get a chance to watch it soon after).
BEST DIRECTOR
| Director | Film |
|---|---|
| Christopher Nolan | Dunkirk |
| Jordan Peele | Get Out |
| Greta Gerwig | Lady Bird |
| Paul Thomas Anderson | Phantom Thread |
| Guillermo del Toro | The Shape of Water |
Most Deserving: Guillermo del Toro
Most Likely: Guillermo del Toro
BEST ACTOR
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Timothee Chalamet | Call Me by Your Name |
| Daniel Day-Lewis | Phantom Thread |
| Daniel Kaluuya | Get Out |
| Gary Oldman | Darkest Hour |
| Denzel Washington | Roman J. Israel, Esq. |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: Gary Oldman
BEST ACTRESS
| Actress | Film |
|---|---|
| Sally Hawkins | The Shape of Water |
| Frances McDormand | Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri |
| Margot Robbie | I, Tonya |
| Saoirse Ronan | Lady Bird |
| Meryl Streep | The Post |
Most Deserving: Frances McDormand
Most Likely: Frances McDormand
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
| Actor | Film |
|---|---|
| Willem Dafoe | The Florida Project |
| Woody Harrelson | Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri |
| Richard Jenkins | The Shape of Water |
| Christopher Plummer | All the Money in the World |
| Sam Rockwell | Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri |
Most Deserving: Sam Rockwell
Most Likely: Sam Rockwell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| Actress | Movie |
|---|---|
| Mary J. Blige | Mudbound |
| Allison Janney | I, Tonya |
| Lesley Manville | Phantom Thread |
| Laurie Metcalf | Lady Bird |
| Octavia Spencer | The Shape of Water |
Most Deserving: Octavia Spencer
Most Likely: Allison Janney
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| Film | Writer(s) |
|---|---|
| The Big Sick | Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani |
| Get Out | Jordan Peele |
| Lady Bird | Greta Gerwig |
| The Shape of Water | Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor; Story by Guillermo del Toro |
| Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri | Martin McDonagh |
Most Deserving: The Big Sick
Most Likely: Get Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| Film | Writer(s) |
|---|---|
| Call Me by Your Name | James Ivory based on the novel by André Aciman |
| The Disaster Artist | Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber based on the book by Greg Sestero and Tom Bissell |
| Logan | Screenplay by Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green; Story by James Mangold |
| Molly’s Game | Aaron Sorkin based on the memoir by Molly Bloom |
| Mudbound | Virgil Williams and Dee Rees based on the novel by Hillary Jordan |
Most Deserving: Logan
Most Likely: Call Me by Your Name
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
| Film |
|---|
| The Boss Baby |
| The Breadwinner |
| Coco |
| Ferdinand |
| Loving Vincent |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: Coco
BEST FOREIGN FILM
| Film | Country |
|---|---|
| A Fantastic Woman | Chile |
| The Insult | Lebanon |
| Loveless | Russia |
| On Body and Soul | Hungary |
| The Square | Sweden |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: A Fantastic Woman
BEST DOCUMENTARY
| Film |
|---|
| Abacus: Small Enough to Jail |
| Faces Places |
| Icarus |
| Last Men in Aleppo |
| Strong Island |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: Faces Places
BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)
| Film |
|---|
| “Edith+Eddie” |
| “Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405” |
| “Heroin(e)” |
| “Knife Skills” |
| “Traffic Stop” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “Heroin(e)”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
| Film |
|---|
| Beauty and the Beast |
| Darkest Hour |
| Phantom Thread |
| The Shape of Water |
| Victoria & Abdul |
Most Deserving: The Shape of Water
Most Likely: Phantom Thread
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
| Song | Film | Artist |
|---|---|---|
| “Mighty River” | Mudbound | Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson |
| “Mystery of Love” | Call Me by Your Name | Sufjan Stevens |
| “Remember Me” from | Coco | Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez |
| “Stand Up for Something” | Marshall | Music by Diane Warren; Lyrics by Common and Diane Warren |
| “This Is Me” | The Greatest Showman | Benj Pasek and Justin Paul |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “This Is Me”
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
| Film | Composer |
|---|---|
| Dunkirk | Hans Zimmer |
| Phantom Thread | Jonny Greenwood |
| The Shape of Water | Alexandre Desplat |
| Star Wars: The Last Jedi | John Williams |
| Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri | Carter Burwell |
Most Deserving: Dunkirk
Most Likely: The Shape of Water
Why: Far and away my favorite aspect of Dunkirk was its score. It is memorable, propulsive, and core piece of the film’s identity. I even have several tracks saved on my Spotify — great for work to get one of the songs to turn up on shuffle. Hans Zimmer’s music does always sound of the same ilk, but his past several scores have always stood out to me for different reasons and Interstellar was my choice for the 87th Academy Awards. In an odd coincidence, just like in 2015, it appears that Alexandre Desplat will once again walk away with the Oscar for his work on The Shape of Water.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| Film |
|---|
| Darkest Hour |
| Victoria & Abdul |
| Wonder |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: Darkest Hour
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
| Film |
|---|
| Beauty and the Beast |
| Blade Runner 2049 |
| Darkest Hour |
| Dunkirk |
| The Shape of Water |
Most Deserving: The Shape of Water
Most Likely: The Shape of Water
BEST FILM EDITING
| Film |
|---|
| Baby Driver |
| Dunkirk |
| I, Tonya |
| The Shape of Water |
| Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri |
Most Deserving: Dunkirk
Most Likely: Baby Driver
Why: The consensus seems to be split between Baby Driver and Dunkirk. Dunkirk was the favorite by count of the sites I track when making these predictions, and war films often win this category. Baby Driver is my pick for its recent win at the BAFTAs, even though it may be a slight underdog odds-wise. There are a lot of films I wish I’d seen this year, and Baby Driver is probably at the top of that list. Trailer editing is completely separate from film editing, but based on the trailer alone I’m going to give this the win. Dunkirk was phenomenal and is the most deserving of the films I saw, but even so, there were a few story-related problems that I would say are a cause of editing — everything doesn’t need to always be a time-altered mess of the mind Christopher Nolan.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
| Film |
|---|
| Blade Runner 2049 |
| Darkest Hour |
| Dunkirk |
| Mudbound |
| The Shape of Water |
Most Deserving: Dunkirk
Most Likely: Blade Runner 2049
BEST SOUND EDITING
| Film |
|---|
| Baby Driver |
| Blade Runner 2049 |
| Dunkirk |
| The Shape of Water |
| Star Wars: The Last Jedi |
Most Deserving: Dunkirk
Most Likely: Dunkirk
BEST SOUND MIXING
| Film |
|---|
| Baby Driver |
| Blade Runner 2049 |
| Dunkirk |
| The Shape of Water |
| Star Wars: The Last Jedi |
Most Deserving: Dunkirk
Most Likely: Baby Driver
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
| Film |
|---|
| Blade Runner 2049 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 |
| Kong: Skull Island |
| Star Wars: The Last Jedi |
| War for the Planet of the Apes |
Most Deserving: War for the Planet of the Apes
Most Likely: War for the Planet of the Apes
BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
| Film |
|---|
| “Dear Basketball” |
| “Garden Party” |
| “Lou” |
| “Negative Space” |
| “Revolting Rhymes” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “Dear Basketball”
BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
| Film |
|---|
| “DeKalb Elementary” |
| “The Eleven O’Clock” |
| “My Nephew Emmett” |
| “The Silent Child” |
| “Watu Wote/All of Us” |
Most Deserving: N/A
Most Likely: “DeKalb Elementary”